SPR's calculation is reliable if we observe these critical scenarios:
1. Commune election of 2007 is really cheated and mechanized by Vietnam. When it is not genuinely winning, the force of the people, the power of the people will increase to vote for democratic and for the change of leader tremendously in 2008.
2. When all democratic parties unite together, the voice of democracy will be bravely because Cambodian people are alert and aware the need and necessity of having genuine democracy in Cambodia. This can be absolutely occured because CPP hate to change and adapt their party. This CPP is still using the same old propanda. They can not change, if they change the internal rift will be happened. And their Master VN doesn't want this Party to change its shape. So it is easy for Democratic Movement to proclaim the new hope to Cambodian people.
This commune election 2007 is not fair at all because there are tricks and distortion by NEC that has played as the frontliner soldier for CPP.
CPP can win only through the same old tactics:
1. Using carrot & stick. It is the culture of CPP led by Hun Sen that is easily intimindating the people in the scary, dark places; and donate gifts to the people in the very loveable, generous attitudes.
2. Benefiting from Khmer Rouge trial as they are procrastinating and procrastinating. CPP government has no intention at all to try KR because KR is CPP, CPP is KR. To remain KR issue, CPP can gain credit through its activity in January 7, 1979. Also VN doesn't want KR trial to be easily ended because it can intensify their illegal invasion and plundering Cambodia in January 7, 1979. This KR trial is absolutely gaining votes for CPP through deep emotion of the Khmer people.
3. vote registratin mechanism is vital which this tactic ensures the CPP to foresee the result correctly.
The list name of the voters are easily for CPP to get victory through different performances such as:
1. Distorting list names who are not supporting CPP
2. Burying the genuine ballot boxes and count the arranged ballot boxes. NEC can arrage this well for CPP.
3. Illegal VN immigrants who are not intentional and patriotic controled by the government can have rights to vote. This act of Cambodian government make Cambodian people feel bitter and bitter.
Note: when democratic voice is louder and louder, VN through its shadow actor like Hun Sen will not hesitate to use guns, grenades, personal bodyguards, fals national police and military, or other vicious tactics to destroy his opponents. But this time, Hun Sen and CPP will choose ghost game rather than getting good for CPP future. Our present globalization and technology encourage and strengthen human rights, freedom and democracy.
Nothing is impossible! the authoritarian and communist leader has never lasted in this world.